Thu 26 Jan 2017 - Impact
Most people who read about what’s going on at Hyperloop One in the press or on social media probably think we’re a group of civil and mechanical engineers cutting steel and welding tubes. That’s true, but little do they know we have a whole team of transportation economists and analysts on staff studying the dynamics of city-pairs and passenger and cargo flows and comparing the costs and benefits of Hyperloop systems with those of traditional transport modes like cars, trucks, railroads and airplanes. I’m one of those “embedded economists” working amid the engineers, and a couple of weeks ago I had the privilege of presenting our work at the Transportation Research Board’s annual conference in Washington, D.C. Thousands of us transport geeks show up at the TRB conference every year; it’s like Woodstock for people who obsess about agglomeration, livability models and mode shift, data analysis, and innovative ideas.
The TRB is part of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and does terrific, rigorous research into global transportation infrastructure issues and produces tangible results. Hyperloop One is proud to contribute to the work at TRB so we can share our insights, communicate with academia, and exchange thoughts with practitioners.
My panel at the TRB drew one of the biggest audiences at the conference, as it was focused on the sexy topic of how transformational technologies will shape the future of intermodal freight, a fancy term for the movement of containers via rail, ship and truck without touching the freight itself. Hyperloop has a big role to play in the future of intermodal freight, given that we’re planning to be moving containers and pallets on-demand at speeds far in excess of today’s rail and highway options and far less expensively than by air freight, while integrating as seamlessly as possible with those modes.
Our vision at Hyperloop One is to connect cities into mega-regions, and turn metro areas into metro stops. This will inevitably improve the efficiency of freight supply chains. By connecting two distant metros, Hyperloop One creates a geographical cluster which could help reduce inventory costs, promote even more just-in-time strategies, and expand same-day delivery service areas. And, by extending the effective economic boundary of a city (Fig. 1), firms could have better accessibility to manufacturing hubs and retail stores and save travel time.
Hyperloop Widens Urban Areas
Economists have a name for this kind of clustering of people and firms—agglomeration—and executing the concept enables better matching of supply chain players and leads to more innovative ideas among firms, which in turn generates higher returns. Agglomeration can benefit regional economies through greater specialization and competition. Figure 2 presents the relationship between productivity and urban density in every U.S. state from the remarkable work of Ciccone and Hall (1993). There is a clear trend: Density increases average labor productivity. Hyperloop can drive that productivity even higher through “virtual” density, as in the kind that doesn’t generate the disadvantages of agglomeration such as as traffic, pollution, and vehicle accidents.
density and productivity
The presentation was followed by great and challenging questions from the audience and the panel host. I thought I would share some of the questions, along with my answers, here on the Hyperloop One blog.
Q: It seems Hyperloop’s main market is the inter-city connection between metropolitan areas. Is it reasonable for Hyperloop to “be anywhere and move anybody”? Have you considered local communities? Is Hyperloop’s service equitable?
A: We think Hyperloop could serve local communities. In November 2016, the company released its vision for last-mile integration by allowing autonomous pod-like vehicles to load directly into the Hyperloop for speedy and direct inter-city travel.People who live miles away from the Hyperloop portal (or station) can order a ride directly into the Hyperloop with their mobile phone. This last-mile solution has meaningful economic implications by expanding transit’s catchment area, reducing waiting and transfer time, and freeing up parking spaces near the portal. Such design is in line with the concept of smart mobility, a rising trend seeking to integrate information technology into transportation. In addition, our engineers are actively working on developing a low-cost way to switch passenger pods from one tube to another similar to highway on-ramps and off-ramps. That would allow us to build more portals along the tube to serve more local communities. Collectively, Hyperloop’s design and technology can improve mobility at a low cost and make it available for people wherever they live.
Q: Why does Hyperloop provide cheap tickets given that Hyperloop offers better service? Does this make economic sense?
A: A study we released last summer for a Helsinki-to-Stockholm route built in an assumption of one-way tickets for 27 euros, a fraction of the cost of airfare on the same route. We think that tickets can be this cheap because we believe Hyperloop could potentially have lower construction and operation costs than high-speed rail. Cost is the fundamental driver of ticket price. On the other hand, we also believe the ticket prices are driven by the services of other transportation modes in the market. It also depends on the operator. One Hyperloop One system could charge a premium based on its dramatic reduction in travel time, and some could change fares dynamically so that last-minute travelers pay something closer to air fares while those who book in advance pay the equivalent of a bus ticket. We’re developing a broader ticket-pricing strategy now.
Q: Why do you think freight is that sensitive to travel time? There are studies claiming that customers are willing to wait a couple of days to receive products.
A: Freight sensitivity to time is heterogenous – fast delivery is in high demand in some cases but not necessary in others. A 2007 meta-analysis of empirical studies by Zamparini and Reggiani on the freight value of travel time in Europe and North America differed widely depending on the delivered product types, location of suppliers and receivers, delivery frequency, and size. For example, out of the 44 investigated studies, five found the freight value of travel time is lower than $5 per hour while another 3 studies found it could reach $50 per hour. There is a clear market segmentation. We believe Hyperloop can bring huge benefits to time-sensitive deliveries.
Q: Hyperloop will be a highly automated system. Won’t that lead to higher unemployment?
A: Not necessarily. Bringing this kind of innovative technology to market requires a lot of people working together to develop and upgrade the systems and components. Hyperloop One has and will keep creating jobs all around the world to achieve our mission. We’re talking about doubling in headcount (500 people) between now and the early part of next year, and we’re projected to generate more than 1,000 indirect and induced job opportunities in this year alone.
The panel ended with great interest from conference attendees. Apart from the discussion, we also participated in a poster session and brought our work to several research committee meetings. We understand and have emphasized the importance of establishing joint efforts between the academic community and Hyperloop One to study its technology impact. We identified several topics such as travel mode choice, spatial interaction, and agglomeration economics. Keep following us here on the blog and on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our newsletter, for more updates and analysis.
Sign up to receive quarterly updates from Virgin Hyperloop.
We're a privately-held company on a mission to create fast, effortless journeys that expand possibilities and eliminate the barriers of distance and time.
There are too many people caught bumper-to-bumper in traffic, who have to make a hard choice with their family on where to live and work, and who are limited in their access to experiences and opportunities. We're building a system that will give back time and deliver the travel experience of the future.
The number of cars is set to double worldwide by 2040, same with air and trucking. We are already dealing with the effects of pollution, lack of access, and congestion. If we only invest in the same technologies we’ve had for more than a century, tomorrow will look like today, only much worse. It’s been over a century since the Wright Brothers first showed us human flight was possible. It’s time for a new era in transportation capable of carrying us forward for the next 100 years.
To date, we have received over $400 million.
A major investor of ours is DP World, a leading enabler of global trade who sees the potential of sustainable hyperloop-enabled cargo systems. Additionally, we are backed by the Virgin Group, an industry leader across rail, aviation, ships, and even spacecrafts. For more on our investors, visit the company page.
Virgin Hyperloop One is the only hyperloop company that has a strategic partnership with a mass transportation company, the Virgin Group, an industry leader across rail, aviation, ships, and even spacecrafts. Another key partner of ours is DP World, a leading enabler of global trade who sees the potential of sustainable hyperloop-enabled cargo systems. Other industry-leading partners include KPMG, Foster + Partners, Systra, BIG, SNCF, GE, Deutsche Bahn, Black & Veatch, McKinsey, Deloitte, Jacobs, Turner & Townsend, ARUP, and Steer, among others.
No, there’s no connection with Elon Musk.
We aren't just building a hyperloop; we're building a network of public and private partners to scale an integrated supply chain ecosystem. Our business model is based on partnerships that create local jobs and opportunities for those who choose to invest in this technology. We are working at the highest level of governments around the globe to put in place commercial agreements to make hyperloop a reality.
Hyperloop is a new mode of transportation designed to eliminate the barriers of distance and time for both people and freight. It can travel at speeds approaching 700mph, connecting cities like metro stops - and it has zero direct emissions. The journeys can be booked on demand so there’s no wait time or delays.
With hyperloop, vehicles, called pods, accelerate gradually via electric propulsion through a low-pressure tube. The pod floats along the track using magnetic levitation and glides at airline speeds for long distances due to ultra-low aerodynamic drag.
On May 12th, 2017, we made history two minutes after midnight when we successfully launched our vehicle using electromagnetic propulsion and levitation under near-vacuum conditions at our full-scale test site in the Nevada Desert. We've since run hundreds of tests, acquiring validated knowledge that only comes from real-world testing. For more info on DevLoop, our 500 m test track, visit our progress page.
We estimate that the top speed for a passenger vehicle or light cargo will be 670 miles per hour or 1080 kilometers per hour. That is about 3 times faster than high-speed rail and 10-15 times faster than traditional rail. The average speed vehicles travel will vary based on the route and customer requirements.
A perfect vacuum would decrease the drag on the vehicle even more, but not significantly. We have already gotten rid of 99.9% of the air in the tube. Lower levels of vacuum than this are important if you are performing scientific experiments, but the cost would not be worthwhile.
Hyperloop is an entirely new mode - think the best of trains, planes, and the metro. Hyperloop is on-demand, offering flexible travel schedules with no stops, no transfers, and no weather delays – all at speeds about 3 times faster than high-speed-rail and less cost. Hyperloop is highly efficient, with a smaller environmental impact than high-speed rail because the closed system can be tunneled below or elevated above ground, avoiding dangerous at-grade crossings. The VHO system is 100% electric and can reach higher speeds than high-speed rail for less energy due to our proprietary electric motor and low-drag environment.
Fast, effortless journeys go hand-in-hand with journeys where everything works reliably without interference, and where all passengers feel comfortable and safe. The Virgin Hyperloop is designed to be inherently safer than other modes, with multiple redundancies in place. Our system operates autonomously in an enclosed tube and is not susceptible to weather delays, accidents from at-grade crossings, human error, or power outages. Our proprietary high-speed switching architecture eliminates unsafe track configurations and moving trackside parts, a failure point of traditional rail with mechanical switches.
As new mode, we have to prove our safety case to regulators and work with them to develop a regulatory framework, so passengers can ride the hyperloop in years not decades. We are encouraged by the support we are seeing at the local and federal level around the world to support hyperloop certification based on the fundamentals of safe operating that are already standard practice. In March 2019, the U.S. Secretary of Transportation, Elaine Chao, created the Non-Traditional and Emerging Transportation Technology (NETT) Council to explore the regulation and permitting of hyperloop technology to bring this new form of mass transportation to the United States. This Council is an important step forward in recognizing hyperloop is a new transportation mode and that we need to shift our mindset and acknowledge that this technology does not fit into a regulatory structure that is over 100 years old. The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DGMOVE) has also been leading discussions with hyperloop companies to advance regulatory standards and, in India, the Principal Scientific Advisor (PSA), Prof. Vijayraghavan, has set up an independent committee called the Consultative Group on Future of Transportation (CGFT) to explore the regulatory path for hyperloop. For more, visit our regulatory progress pages.
While flying through a tube at more than 1000km/h might seem like a thrill ride, the truth is we are able to mitigate any uncomfortable acceleration forces within our controlled environment. The journey will be so smooth, you could sip a coffee the whole time without spilling a single drop. Normal acceleration and deceleration of 0.20 Gs will feel similar to a train. As a comparison, flooring a typical sedan gives between 0.4-0.5 Gs and commercial airplanes see 0.3-0.5Gs depending on the plane and load.
Pods will continue to travel safely to the next portal even with a large breach. Our response to a breach would be to intentionally repressurize the tube with small valves places along the route length while engaging pod brakes to safely bringing all pods to rest before it is deemed safe to continue to the next portal. A sustained leak could impact performance (speed) but would not pose a safety issue due to vehicle and system architectural design choices. This assessment is based in solid understanding and analysis of the complex vehicle load behaviors during such an event.
Without a massive leap forward, pollution from the transportation industry is expected to almost double by 2050 - well above the carbon budget. By combining an ultra-efficient electric motor, magnetic levitation, and a low-drag environment, the VHO system can reach airline speeds for 5-10x less energy (depends on route length) and can go faster than high-speed rail using less energy. In regions like the Middle East, we could power the system completely by solar panels which cover the tube. As fighting against climate change becomes an existential issue for cities across the globe, hyperloop will create a new, shared, electric mobility model for helping to permanently reform an industry with some of the world’s highest carbon emissions.
We are designing Virgin Hyperloop to be more efficient than other modes of transportation. Modern jetliners use up to 10 times the energy we use per passenger-mile over the entire journey. We can cruise at 500 miles per hour for less energy (per passenger) than an electric car doing 60 miles per hour. At peak speed, the VHO system consumes approximately 75 watt hours per passenger kilometer (Wh/pax-km). To put this in perspective, the fastest conventional maglev train travels at about half our speed and consumes 33% more energy.
Our system is 100% electric with zero direct emissions. We're energy-agnostic. Our system can draw power from whichever energy sources are available along the route and support a transition to a renewable energy-powered future. In regions like the Middle East, we can completely power the system with solar panels which cover the tube.
It’s similar those new electric vehicles that are so quiet they need to create noise to indicate movement. With hyperloop, we eliminate sources of mechanical noise, like wheels on track, and we actually have a sound barrier inherent in our tube design
DP World Cargospeed is a global brand for hyperloop-enabled cargo systems operated by DP World and enabled by Virgin Hyperloop technology. These systems will deliver freight at the speed of flight and closer to the cost of trucking for fast, sustainable, and efficient delivery of palletized cargo.
The focus would be on high-priority, on-demand goods – fresh food, medical supplies, electronics, and more.
With DP World Cargospeed, deliveries can be completed in hours versus days with greater reliability and fewer delays. It will expand freight transportation capacity by connecting with existing modes of road, rail, ports, and air transport, and will provide greater connectivity with manufacturing parks, economic zones, distribution centers, and regional urban centers. This can shrink inventory lead times, help reduce finished goods inventory, and cut required warehouse space and cost by 25%. DP World Cargospeed networks can also enable just-in-time, agile manufacturing practices.
The Virgin Hyperloop is unique in that it doesn’t need to be passenger-only or cargo-only. We are designing a mixed-use system that fully utilizes system capacity while maximizing economic and social benefits. However, it is possible to run cargo commercial operations while certification and regulation are still ongoing for passenger use.
We are working with the most visionary governments around the world to make sure you can ride the hyperloop in years, not decades. Our goal is to have operational systems in the late 2020s. Our ability to meet that goal will depend on how fast the regulatory and statutory processes move.
We are working with visionary governments and partners around the world to make hyperloop a reality today. To learn more about our projects around the world, visit our progress page.
Capital and operating costs will range widely based on the route. We recently released a study that showed our linear costs are 60-70% that of high-speed rail projects. In addition, we expect the operational costs to be significantly lower than existing forms of transportation.
It’s simple – if it’s not affordable, people won't use it. We are looking to build something that will expand opportunities for the masses, so they can live in one city with their family and work in another. Currently, that kind of high-speed transport is not feasible for most people. The exact ticket price will vary for each route, but a recent study showed that riding a hyperloop in Missouri could cost less than the gas needed to drive.
We are in the business of serving local needs, not the other way around. Public and private support is key. In some cases, we will respond to solicited bids with partners when we feel the technology matches the project’s objectives. In other cases, we will make an unsolicited bid for a project when we see that hyperloop could offer a unique solution to market needs.
While the technology is different, the process for building a hyperloop is similar to that of building a highway, railway, or any other type of linear infrastructure. The first stage is project development. This phase includes feasibility studies, and then more detailed engineering reports and environmental impact studies. Once a project is approved to move forward, a consortium is formed to finance and deliver on the project.
Many infrastructure projects succeed or fail based on right-of-way issues. We are designing a system that requires only about half the right-of-way as high-speed rail and can more easily adapt to existing right-of-ways. At high speeds, the VHO system has a 4.5 times tighter turn radius compared to high-speed rail and can climb grades that are 6 times steeper, reducing the disturbance at crossings. Portals will be purposely integrated into and support existing communities and landscapes. Low noise levels will expand opportunities to build hyperloops closer to the city center.
Hyperloop also holds enormous promise for rural communities. Virgin Hyperloop systems can be built below or above ground, which means no one’s farm needs to be cut in half. Our system enables rural areas to retain residents, who can now have more access to urban job centers, educational opportunities, and health care facilities. Additionally, hyperloop could enable freight distribution centers to be placed in rural areas, leading to job growth and industrial clusters. After a system is built, there is the opportunity to add additional on and off-ramps, supporting a greater number of people along the route.
Transportation infrastructure has traditionally relied on extensive government funding. This is because the benefits of clean, safe, and efficient transportation are enjoyed by the entire community, not just the user buying a ticket. However, most existing mass transportation modes are unprofitable and hindered by existing infrastructure built in the past century or by legacy systems. We want to change that and are focused on public-private partnerships. By developing a new mode of transportation from scratch, we're able to leverage technological developments that have occurred in the last century, especially the IT revolution. We're able to keep maintenance costs low, energy efficiency high, and transport tens of thousands of passengers per hour. This keeps margins and accessibility high, contributing to more financially attractive returns than if the corridor was served by existing modes. These benefits aren’t just hypothetical. While this is an exceptional case due to high demand, a third-party evaluation found that our Mumbai-Pune Hyperloop Project could be funded 100% by private capital. In the U.S. we see enormous potential to attract investment from the private sector, leveraging public investments. Involving government stakeholders as well as potential private investors early in the project development process is critical.
عذرا ، هذه الصفحة لا تتضمن العربية. هل تريد الاستمرار؟